ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE-EFFECTS ON MAN AN NATURE

The Arctic is a special part of the world, although is changing rapidly. These changes are expected to affect humans through physical, ecological, social, and economic effects.

The entire world will also be affected by global warning, and rising sea levels.

This talk is based on information from the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report produced by the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC). This group is an intergovernmental forum made of members from the eight Arctic Nations (Canada, Denmark,/Greenland/ Faroe Island, Finland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and USA).

Although difficult to predict, consequences of arctic climate changes to the town of Churchill will also be discussed.

ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE

Earth's global temperature is clearly rising year to year. Fluctuations may vary, but a growing trend shows that the average temperature is rising.

GLACIER MELTING AND GLOBAL SEA RISE

The Northern Polar cap is observed to be thawing The Greenland ice sheet glacier has also been observed to be melting since 1979. Satellite photos show this clearly. Figure 9 Projected Ice melt of North

Figure 10 Greenland Ice sheet 1992 and 2002

The global average sea level rose 8 cm in the last 20 years, with the late of rise increasing. This is from both the melting of land based ice and thermal expansion from ocean warming.

The global average sea level is expected to rise 10-90 cm this century.

If the Greenland ice sheet completely melts, the sea level is expected to rise 7m (23ft). Current models expect this to happen.

A 50cm rise in sea level is expected to cause a Shorehard retreat, ("or loss") of coastline of 50m where the land is relatively flat.

This will have major impacts on port cities, and countries with extensive coasts.

Figure 11 Effect of rising seal evel on flat coast line

Freetown, Guyana is already below sea level. Rising waters would become major hazards and threats to the communities, particularly island nations.

Figure 12 Coast of Florida susceptible to rising sea

PHYSICAL EFFECTS OF A WARMING EARTH

As ice melts and is replaced by exposed soil, water, and vegetation, the surface is now darker. This will allow greater absorption of the sunlight amplifying global warming. Greenhouse gasses may have catalyzed the process of global warming but with loss of arctic ice, the process will continue.

Figure 13 Comparison of ice and trees surfac absorption of sunlight

Melting of arctic ice will also increase freshwater runoff into the oceans, changing the circulation and ocean current . Disturbance of this circulation, such as the Gulf of Mexico towards Europe may have devastating effects on the climate there.

Figure 14 Ocean Circulation

Figure 15 Arctic rivers

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON ARCTIC ANIMALS

Polar Bears

Polar bears are dependent on sea ice where they hunt ice living seals and travel along ice corridors to move. Polar bears are also at the top of the arctic food chain and concentrate pollutants.The health and welfare of these bears are thought to be a "litmus test" of arctic health. If there is complete loss of sea ice, it is unlikely that polar bears will survive, as a species.

Polar bears are adapted to an arctic and aquatic existence. If-climate changes occur too quickly for the bears to find new niches to a to adapt into the bears will perish.

" During recent travel in Eastern Europe, I noticed the prevalence and use of the polar bear in advertisement and promotions to symbolize anything that was cold. Countries such as Bulgaria, and Romania, use this image. The polar bear is uniquely identified as a symbol to all the people of the earth ."

The decline and loss of the polar bear will devastate arctic environs, but will also be a profound loss to all people, if we allow this species to die. Measures to preserve polar bears have been incorporated into the Polar Bear Protection Act (see appendix)

Ice Dependent Seals

The ringed seal, bearded seal, and ribbon seal give birth and nurse their pups on ice. They also rest on ice platforms. Adapting to land may be unlikely for them. Their loss will also affect polar bears.

Migrating Birds

With warming the tree line is expected to advance northward encroaching on Tundra. Migrating bird flocks will have to go further and may not coincide their arrival with the abundant insect food sources in their breeding and nesting areas. Rising sea levels will also encroach Tundra from the north.

Southern bird populations are dependent on the success of birds breeding and nesting in the north, and migrating patterns may suffer. Many bird species (eagles, whooping cranes) were threatened with widespread use of DDT. Since DDT has been banned populations have recovered, but pollutants still threaten them. Migrating birds are expected to lose 50% of their breeding area by 2100. DDT has been reconsidered for resurgent malaria. This line of thinking must be strongly opposed due to the established toxicity on wildlife.

Caribou and Reindeer

The Tundra vegetation available for the frequency herds of caribou and reindeer, are expected to decrease as trees shift northward which decreasing tundra. Freeze-thaw cycles are also expected to decrease food availability.

Declining animal populations will directly affect human populations who are dependent on them for food and way of life.

Indigenous People

Many groups depend on hunting arctic animals, herding reindeer, fishing and gathering. Their food supplies, and their culture will be threatened.

COASTAL EROSION/ THAWING PERMAFROST

Rising sea levels with reduction of sea ice will allow higher waves and storm surges to reach shore.

Thawing Permafrost

Will destabilize many existing buildings, roads, pipelines, airports and other industries. Less winter roads will make some areas less accessible.

Shifting Vegetation Zones

Rising temperatures favor taller, denser vegetation promoting expansion of forests in to the Tundra; and Tundra into polar deserts.

.

Figure 16 Present and projected treeline

The Tundra is expected to shrink to the lowest extent in the last 21,000 years. This is expected not only to affect threatened or endangered species, but also rapidly decline species that are presently widespread.

The replacement of Tundra with forests will also further accelerate global warming, as the reflectivity of ice or snow will be replaced with heat absorbent vegetation. The opportunistic black spruce (the least reflective of vegetation will be present.)

A recent experiment in Wood Bison National Park, Alberta/N.W.T. carried out limited planned tires supervised by Parks Canada, on invasive trees that were growing on Salt Plains. Such forestry measures are local but could be potentially useful in management of specific areas.

FIRES AND INSECT OUTBREAKS

With warming climates, forest fires may be expected to increase. Countries must be prepared to allocate resources and plan for fire management in the Arctic. Longer, hotter, and subsequently drier summers will also make northern forests more susceptible to forest fires.

Overgrowth of insects has been reported. The spruce bark beetle has affected 1.6 million hectares of White spruce in Alaska since 1989, and also 300,000 hectares in Yukon 1994-2002.

A overgrowth of moths destroyed birch forests in the Sweden (2004). Newly expanded biomes are susceptible to exploration by opportunistic overgrowth of insects. With sudden climate changes, less of Nature's checks and balances exist to stabilize systems.

SEA TRAVEL

With a decline in arctic sea ice, particularly in the summer, Arctic sea-lanes may be more commercially feasible

.

Figure 17 Loss of sea ice opening up shipping routes

The famous Northwest Passage could become a reality. For Churchill, this will allow major access for European, Russian and Asian markets. The Port of Churchill has in recent years, been unsuccessful, but a large travel route opening period could make it very attractive. Connection with the CNR rail line links it first to Thompson and then to the rest of North America.

One undesirable effect may also involve the further development of oil drilling in the North, as some areas are opened up to exploration, and pollution from industrial accidents.

CLIMATE INFLUENCE ON HUMAN HEALTH

Many communities are already small, isolated with little public health support.

Those dependent on hunting and fishing will have their food sources threatened. Few infection agents may also spread. West Nile Virus has spread through North America, and could spread further North.

Similarly, other infection agents may potentially spread in similar fashion.

CONTAMINANTS AND POLLUTANTS

The Tundra is expected to shrink to the lowest extent in the last 21,000 years. This is expected not only to affect threatened or endangered species, but also rapidly decline species that are presently widespread.

The replacement of Tundra with forests will also further accelerate global warming, as the reflectivity of ice or snow will be replaced with heat absorbent vegetation. The opportunistic black spruce (the least reflective of vegetation will be present.)

A recent experiment in Wood Bison National Park, Alberta/N.W.T. carried out limited planned tires supervised by Parks Canada, on invasive trees that were growing on Salt Plains. Such forestry measures are local but could be potentially useful in management of specific areas.

FIRES AND INSECT OUTBREAKS

With warming climates, forest fires may be expected to increase. Countries must be prepared to allocate resources and plan for fire management in the Arctic. Longer, hotter, and subsequently drier summers will also make northern forests more susceptible to forest fires.

Overgrowth of insects has been reported. The spruce bark beetle has affected 1.6 million hectares of White spruce in Alaska since 1989, and also 300,000 hectares in Yukon 1994-2002.

A overgrowth of moths destroyed birch forests in the Sweden (2004). Newly expanded biomes are susceptible to exploration by opportunistic overgrowth of insects. With sudden climate changes, less of Nature's checks and balances exist to stabilize systems.

SEA TRAVEL

With a decline in arctic sea ice, particularly in the summer, Arctic sea-lanes may be more commercially feasible

.

Figure 17 Loss of sea ice opening up shipping routes

The famous Northwest Passage could become a reality. For Churchill, this will allow major access for European, Russian and Asian markets. The Port of Churchill has in recent years, been unsuccessful, but a large travel route opening period could make it very attractive. Connection with the CNR rail line links it first to Thompson and then to the rest of North America.

One undesirable effect may also involve the further development of oil drilling in the North, as some areas are opened up to exploration, and pollution from industrial accidents.

CLIMATE INFLUENCE ON HUMAN HEALTH

Many communities are already small, isolated with little public health support.

Those dependent on hunting and fishing will have their food sources threatened. Few infection agents may also spread. West Nile Virus has spread through North America, and could spread further North.

Similarly, other infection agents may potentially spread in similar fashion.

CONTAMINANTS AND POLLUTANTS

Pollutants are spread to the arctic by wind, and are also precipitated onto the land surface. With warming they may be released in vapour pulses.

Animal migration such as Pacific Salmon, moving northward into the Arctic rivers can bring contaminants into the food chain.

Figure 18 Arctic food web

CONCLUSION

Global warning is a firmly established phenomenal, and is expected to continue even if carbon dioxide emissions decrease.

The Arctic biome is threatened in several ways. Destruction both locally in the Arctic, and globally throughout the world can hopefully be minimized by 2 actions.

Mitigation or slowing the speed and effect of the climate changes by reducing greenhouse gasses. This can be done through massive public education and through the accepting of conservation values.

Adaptation will attempt to limit adverse climate change. Humans can change their homes, cities, and industries to protect against fires, floods and other disasters, but animals and plants cannot.

Advocacy for wildlife preservation, and measures to further limits human infringement on wildlife reserves must be carried out and carefully monitored an enforced.

Ratification of the Kyoto accord and other environmental plans is clearly a start, but not a solution to global warning.

PRESS RELEASE

14th Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group

The world's polar bears are distributed in 19 subpopulations over vast and sometimes relatively inaccessible areas of the Arctic. Thus, while the status of some subpopulations in Canada and the Barents Sea are well documented, that of several others remains less known. Thus, it is not possible to give an accurate estimate of the total number of polar bears in the world, although the range is thought to be 20-25,000.Research in several geographic areas indicates the greatest challenge to conservation of polar bears may be large scale ecological change resulting from climatic warming, if the trend documented in recent years continues as projected. A new analysis of the long-term subpopulation data base in Western Hudson Bay confirms the size of that subpopulation has declined from 1200 to less than 1000. The group concluded the decline was caused by reductions in condition and survival, especially of young bears, because climatic warming has caused the sea ice to break up about three weeks earlier now than it did only 30 years ago. Thus, polar bears have less time to feed and store the fat needed to survive on shore for four months before the ice re-freezes. Significant reductions in the apparent survival of ringed seal pups and changes in the diet of sea birds in northern Hudson Bay, coincident with larger amounts of open water earlier in the summer, have also been reported. Taken together, these results suggest that unknown changes in the marine ecosystem of Hudson Bay are now underway. Similarly, the minimum extent of multiyear ice in the polar basin continues to decline at the rate of 8-10% per decade, resulting in unusually extensive areas of open water in regions such as the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas and East Greenland. The Group emphasized the importance of continuing to monitor polar bear subpopulations in order to quantitatively assess the affects of climatic warming. High levels of PCBs and pesticides were found in East Greenland polar bears. There was a strong indication of a relationship between contaminants and skull mineral density indicating possible disruption of the bone mineral composition. The changes were related to ageing, infections and chronic exposure. The Group felt these results confirmed the importance of continuing to monitor and study the effects of contaminants on polar bears. With the results of the foregoing research and related uncertainties in mind, the Group reviewed the status of polar bears using the 2001 IUCN Red List categories and criteria. The Group concluded that the IUCN Red List classification of the polar bear should be upgraded from Least Concern to Vulnerable based on the likelihood of an overall decline in the size of the total population of more than 30% within the next 35 to 50 years. The principal cause of this decline is climatic warming and its consequent negative affects on the sea ice habitat of polar bears. In some areas, contaminants may have an additive negative influence. Harvesting of polar bears continues to be of primary importance to the culture and economy of aboriginal groups throughout much of the Arctic. Therefore, maintaining a harvest within sustainable limits, in relation to subpopulation size and trends, remains a priority. It was also recognized that aboriginal people resident throughout the Arctic are uniquely positioned to observe both wildlife and changes in the environment. Thus, the Group confirmed the importance of integrating traditional ecological knowledge (termed IQ in Nunavut) with scientific studies to aid polar bear conservation wherever possible. Since the last meeting of the PSBG four years ago, significant new reports on traditional ecological knowledge of polar bears and their habitat have been completed in Chukotka, Alaska, and Canada. The results of these and future studies need to be incorporated into research and management where possible but the Group agreed that estimates of subpopulation size or sustainable harvest levels should not be made solely on the basis of traditional ecological knowledge without supporting scientific studies.

Furthermore, because of continuing changes in ice cover, with unknown consequences for the arctic marine ecosystems of which polar bears are a part, the precautionary principle should be observed in determining harvest quotas, regardless of how certain the combined information appear to be. There was substantial discussion about large quota increases in some polar bear subpopulations in Nunavut where there has continued to be uncertainty about subpopulation size and trends despite scientific studies augmented by computer simulations and traditional ecological knowledge.

The group concluded that increases in harvest levels or estimates of subpopulation size should not be based on traditional ecological knowledge without support from sound scientific data and further, that regardless of how certain the combined information appear to be, increases in quotas should be implemented with the precautionary principle. Although the harvest of polar bears in Greenland has been poorly regulated, the Greenland Home Rule government announced that quotas are to be implemented and enforced as of January 1 2006. Hunters will have to have a special license for each polar bear hunted and this will be used to track the sale of hides or trading in parts. Preliminary discussions have been held with Canada to develop co-management agreements and determine the size of shared sustainable quotas for subpopulations of polar bears shared between the two countries using both scientific information and traditional ecological knowledge. The Group commended Greenland on this initiative and emphasized the importance of ensuring a sustained effort to monitor the harvest and enforce regulations. Further, the Group noted the critical importance of a continuing a program of public education through the transition period to ensure understanding and acceptance of the vital need to improve the present system of management.

Similar to Greenland the group acknowledged significant harvest levels were occurring unregulated in Chukotka, Russia. The group urged both the United States and the Russian Federation to move rapidly to implement the Bilateral Treaty already signed between the two countries. Future challenges for conserving polar bears and their Arctic habitat will be greater than at any time in the past because of the rapid rate at which environmental change appears to be occurring. The complexity and global nature of the issues continue to require a significant degree of international cooperation and development of diverse and new approaches. into force are

THE POLAR BEAR PROTECTION ACT

Polar Bear Protection Regulation

Regulation 210/2002 Registered December 16, 2002   

Definitions 1 In this regulation, "Act" means The Polar Bear Protection Act ; "director" means the Director of the Wildlife and Ecosystem Protection Branch of the Department of Conservation; facility" means the building and associated areas where a polar bear is kept, including the exhibit area, the off-exhibit area and all holding areas; "holding area" means the area of a facility set aside for feeding, examination and veterinary treatment of a polar bear; "licensed veterinarian" means a person licensedto practice veterinary medicine in the place where a polar bear is located; "off-exhibit area" means the area of a facility where public viewing of a polar bear is not permitted, but does not include the holding area; "zoo" means a permanent facility where wildlife is kept for the purpose of conservation, education or science, but does not include a circus. PERMITS Eligibility

2(1) The minister may consider an application for a permit under the Act only from a zoo that is accredited by the Canadian Association of Zoos and Aquariums, the American Zoo and Aquarium Association, the European Association of Zoos and Aquaria or another accreditation body approved by the director. Contents of application 2(2) An application for a permit must include the following: (a) documents establishing that the applicant meets the eligibility requirements set out in subsection (1);(b) the reasons why the applicant requires the polar bear; (c) a detailed plan of the facility where the applicant proposes to keep the polar bear; (d) details of the training and education of staff at the facility where the applicant proposes to keep the polar bear; (e) details of the veterinary care program at the facility; (f) details of the behavioral enrichment program at the facility; (g) details of the interpretative education program at the facility. Application fee 2(3) An applicant must pay a non-refundable application fee of $250. at the time an application is submitted. Additional information 2(4) The applicant must provide any additional information requested by the director.

Inspection 2(5) If requested by the director, the applicant must allow a person designated by the director to inspect the facility in which the applicant proposes to keep the polar bear. The applicant is responsible for all costs associated with the inspection.

Decision of minister (1) The minister has an absolute discretion egarding the issuance of a permit. The minister'sdecision is not subject to appeal or review by a court.

Term of permit (2) A permit may be issued for a term specified by the minister on the permit.

POLAR BEAR ELIGIBILITY

Eligibility 4(1) A polar bear may be provided to a permit holder only if(a) it is an orphaned cub, under two years of age; (b) the director is satisfied that it cannot safely be released into the wild; and (c) it is examined by a licensed veterinarian and determined to be in good health.

Identification 4(2) A polar bear must be permanently identified by a lip tattoo or other method approved by the director before it is provided to a permit holder.

FACILITIES Size of exhibit area 5(1) An exhibit area in a facility containing one or two polar bears must be at least 500 m . The 2 size of the exhibit area must increase by an additional 150 m for each additional polar bear in 2 the facility.

Size of off-exhibit area 5(2) An off-exhibit area in a facility containing one or two polar bears must be at least 75 m . The size of the off-exhibit area must 2 increase by an additional 25 m for each additional 2 polar bear in the facility.

Size of holding area 5(3) A facility must have a holding area for each polar bear that is at least 4 m x 3 m x 2.5 m. Size of maternity den 5(4) If the polar bear is pregnant or has a cub under four months of age, the facility must have a maternity den that is separate from other holding

areas and is at least 2.5 m x 2.5 m x 2.5 m.

Unrestricted access in facility 6(1) Subject to subsection (2), the polar bear must be allowed to move freely between the exhibit area and the off-exhibit area at all times When polar bear restricted to off-exhibit area 6(2) The polar bear may only be confined to the off-exhibit area for overnight accommodation or for short periods of time in the day to provide a break from public viewing or to allow maintenance of the exhibit area to be performed.

Public access7 (1) Except where viewing is provided through a window, the public must be kept at least 6 m away from the polar bear through the use of barrier walls, dry moats or other safe and appropriate means.

Barrier walls 7(2) In order to comply with subsection (1), a barrier wall must be at least 6 m high (excluding any railing) and be constructed so that the polar bear cannot climb it.

Dry moats 7(3) In order to comply with subsection (1), a dry moat must be at least 6 m deep and include a barrier or device that will break the fall of the polar

bear if it falls into the moat.

Windows 7(4) Any window that allows public viewing must be at least 5 cm thick (or be constructed of safety glass) and located in a position that allows the polar bear to avoid public viewing if desired.

Construction of walls and floors 8(1) All walls and floors in a facility must be constructed of material that is non-toxic, not highly abrasive and easy to clean.

Substrate area 8(2) The exhibit area must include an area at least 125 m that is covered by soil, straw, wood 2 chips or another suitably soft substrate.

Pool9 An exhibit area must have a pool that (a) is at least 70 m ; 2 (b) has a shallow end that allows the polar bear to wade; and (c) has a deep end that is at least 3 m deep.

Temperatur e10(1) At all times during the year, the polar bear must have access to an area in the facility where a comfortable temperature for the bear is maintained.

Ventilation 10(2) The indoor areas of a facility must be adequately ventilated to maintain acceptable air quality at all times.

Lighting 10 (3) The indoor areas of a facility must have skylights to provide natural lighting. Any artificial lighting in a facility must be of an intensity that does not threaten the well-being and comfort of the polar bear.

Visual barriers 11(1) The exhibit area must contain at least one visual barrier for each polar bear in the area that is designed to allow the bear to avoid public viewing if desired. Public view of exhibit area 11(2) The exhibit area must not allow more than 180 degrees of public viewing access to the polar bear.

SHADE

11(3) At all times in the day, the outdoor areas of a facility must provide shade for the polar bear and an area that is open to sunlight.

CARE

Veterinary care12(1) A permit holder must ensure that veterinary care and facilities available to the polar bear meet the standards set out in Guidelines for Zoo and Aquarium Veterinary Medical Programs and Veterinary Hospitals published by the Veterinary Standards Committee of the American Association of Zoo Veterinarians. Fecal examination

12(2) A permit holder must ensure that a fecal examination of the polar bear is conducted twice a

year and any required treatment is provided in response to the results of the examination.

Daily observation 13 A permit holder must ensure that the physical health of the polar bear is inspected by staff at the facility during daily feeding.

Diet 14(1) A permit holder must ensure that the polar bear is provided with a balanced diet that includes hard and soft foods, such as prepared dog chow, organ meat, carrots or apples, or reasonable substitutes. Drinking water 14(2) A permit holder must ensure that fresh drinking water is available to the polar bear at all times in the facility.

CLEANING

15(1) A permit holder must ensure that the exhibit area, off-exhibit area and all holding areas are cleaned on a daily basis. Maintenance of pool water 15(2) A permit holder must ensure that the pool water in the facility is filtered or changed on a regular basis to maintain water quality and prevent the development of algae.

SAFETY PLAN

16(1) A permit holder must have a written emergency plan that sets out the procedures to be followed if the polar bear escapes from the facility, is injured or a member of the public enters the facility Rescue equipment 16(2) A permit holder must have rescue equipment at the facility for use if the polar bear escapes, is injured or becomes incapacitated in the facility.

BEHAVIOURAL ENRICHMENT

Behavioural enrichment program 17(1) A permit holder must establish a written behavioral enrichment program designed to stimulate and encourage natural behavior in the

polar bear. Exhibit area design 17(2) The exhibit area must contain structural features such as resting platforms, waterfalls and nesting sites. It must also contain stabilized rocks, tree trunks or similar materials that are redesigned periodically to provide a change in environment for the polar bear. Alternative foods and feedings 17(3) A permit holder must ensure that the

regular feeding schedule is supplemented by irregularly timed and located feedings involving

foods not normally served.

INSPECTION

18 When requested by the director, a permit holder must allow a person designated by the director to examine the polar bear and the facility.

RECORDS AND NOTICES

19(1) A permit holder must provide the director with the following documents (a) an annual report prepared by a licensed veterinarian regarding the physical and behavioral health of the polar bear; (b) a report prepared by a licensed veterinarian whenever a significant change in the health of the polar bear occurs;(c) an autopsy report prepared by a licensed veterinarian if the polar bear dies.

Notice of transfer 19(2) A permit holder must provide the director with written notice if the permit holder intends to move the polar bear to a different facility. The notice must be provided at least six months in advance of the proposed move.

Coming into force 20 This regulation comes into force on the day The Polar Bear Protection Act , S.M. 2002, c. 25, comes into force. December 10, 2002 Steve Ashton Minister of Conservation

REFERENCES:

• Polar Bear Act of Manitoba
• 14th Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group
• Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Executive summary.