Stop Afghan AIDS: Quick Summary

Team Leaders

Faizullah Kakar, Deputy Minister of Public Health, Afghanistan
Abba Gumel, Director, Institute of Industrial & Mathematical Sciences, U. Manitoba, Canada
Ethan Rubinstein, Head, Internal Medicine, U. Manitoba
Imam Khaleel Mohammed, Religious Studies, San Diego State U.
Wassay Niazi, was Professor of Infectious Diseases, Kabul Medical Institute
Richard Gordon, Professor, Radiology, U. Manitoba

HIV/AIDS is rapidly increasing in Afghanistan. Although the epidemic is still small (67 known cases through 2005), we guesstimate that there are 30,000 actual cases now, and, if the epidemic is not hindered, 10 million people (one out of three) will be infected within 12 years. (See: Preliminary Extrapolation of HIV cases in Afghanistan.)

Plan
• Mathematicians (worked on HIV, SARS, West Nile, & predicted bird flu pandemic) build math model of
Afghanistan epidemic & write computer program simulating it.
• Physicians & epidemiologists obtain data for parameters in model.
• Mathematicians simulate interventions & predict those that should stop the epidemic.
• Scholarly Islamic imams decide which of these interventions are palatable under Islamic law.
• Afghanistan Government implements those 2 interventions.
• Physicians & epidemiologists monitor epidemic.
• Mathematicians check if model is tracking epidemic & change as needed.
• Donors ensure it can all happen in a timely fashion, so that “donor delay” does not have to be part of the
mathematical modeling.
• Gender Issues Advisory Committee monitors the fair treatment & involvement of women as the project
unfolds.
• Afghans are trained in mathematical epidemiology & infectious disease epidemics to form a sustainable

Afghan rapid response team.
Afghanistan has many risk factors & is ripe for a major, explosive HIV/AIDS epidemic. If allowed to take its course, this disease could undo all efforts at improving life for Afghans: some African epidemics have reached 30-40%.
This is not a research or pilot project. It is a direct, full scale, quantitative confrontation of the problem, completely in the context of Afghan culture, run by and for Afghans, extended to all Afghans as security permits.

It is an achievable goal: a) UM efforts have reduced HIV in Kenya; b) Thailand has
brought its epidemic under control. Cost: US$0.20 per person per year for 5 years, total: US$30 million, plus US$5 million/year to treat people already infected. (UM would subcontract for its participation.) 70 people are involved.

Result: model of how to stop HIV/AIDS in the 85% of countries with small epidemics that have not yet exploded.

Last revised: May 10, 2006.
Contact: Dr. Richard Gordon, GordonR@ms.UManitoba.ca
(204) 995-7125, U niversity of Manitoba (UM)

(Website Editor's note: This document was unable to posted on this website in its original format and had to be cut and pasted so that the last figure was not included-- G Podolsky)